Who's bearish on CL?

Successfully trading physical commodity intermediate-term trends requires a dual-view approach.  

1.) Keeping tabs on changes in supply of the commodity for physical delivery as much price discovery in the front month contracts is related to the constraint of having to deliver physical.

2.) Monitoring larger supply/demand trends that will take shape and impact commodity prices over the longer term drift.

On changes in physical delivery supply, OPEC+ production cuts have aggressively aimed at counterbalancing rapidly increasing US production and tepid global demand.  And their use of shock tactics to overdeliver on cuts and compliance while focusing on constricting US imports coinciding with reduced self-inflicted US imports via sanctions seems to finally have succeeded in causing larger than expected draws in weekly API and EIA reports recently.  Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have recently reiterated the oil bull case in light of these numbers.

However, global supplies and even those in the US are clearly overabundant per this Orbital Insight report.  So all of this OPEC+ effort may have changed the near-term trend in US inventories, but there is a very long way to go globally, especially in Asia.

On longer-term supply/demand trends, the major reason for the price collapse in Q4 2018 was related to rapidly decreased demand perceptions.  Oil has traded in line with US equities with a very strong correlation, an excellent proxy for domestic economic growth and demand for energy.  Should US equities begin to reflect much slower economic growth than anticipated in the rally this year, this sentiment change will almost surely drive WTI prices lower as the primary demand driver is still domestic, though global demand should increase its influence on CL's price later this year and next as supply/chain bottlenecks improve clearing the way for increased export, and the spread between crude in Houston and even Cushing with respect to Brent falls sharply.

And I have strong reasons to believe that US equities are entering a primary bear market downtrend as of right now.  So even though CL has been able to rally in line with US stocks as there was a recovery in US growth and energy demand perception in addition to aggressive OPEC+ production cuts targeting US storage, a change in that economic demand perception is on the horizon amid a sea of excess global oil supply.

To be sure, even a longer-term view of oil from supply-side economics points to ample supply and fleeting, lofty oil prices in this report.

With the 200-SMA above at $60.88 for the May contract, I would anticipate limited upside and longer-term downward drift punctuated by sharp short-covering rallies for at least the next couple months on EIA/API numbers being impacted by the full force of OPEC+ influence.