In late Feb, US oil exports made headlines breaking all-time records 3.6 mmbpd+, but China isn't directly buying any of that supply right now because of the trade war. There's a significant amount of WTI sitting in worldwide storage not accounted for in EIA's estimates, and I'm wondering if the trade agreement isn't signed or executed by the Chinese by summer driving season starting in early April, are oil traders going to ship back and dump it on a US gasoline market that's probably going to see lower demand this year compared to last as we've seen GDP and corporate revenues fall year-over-year?
This is a significant outlier risk that I don't believe is priced into WTI (yet)...
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