Update on NG - short-term bearishness

I last commented on NG almost one month ago after the March contract had moved toward multi-month lows.  I speculated that a retest of the lows would set up a long opportunity should the temperatures in Raleigh, NC hit lows in the 20s and highs around 40 maximum.  The contract never actually tested those lows and drifted higher for the month as colder weather hit the Midwest leaving the South largely unaffected until today (lows in 20s and highs low 40s) and these past few days.  Today, 1.5 month highs were made near 2.90 for the April contract.  But the Google app shows a strong projection of unseasonably warm temperatures in Raleigh, NC for the next week and a half.  

Also in the meanwhile, U.S. nat-gas inventories have already shrunk as nat-gas stockpiles on Feb 22 stood at a 9-1/2 month low of 1.539 tcf, down -8.5% y/y and -21.6% below the 5-year average.  And tomorrow's weekly EIA inventory data is expected to show that U.S. nat-gas inventories fell -144 bcf last week, a bigger draw than the 5-year average of -109 bcf.

For the first time since before February 7th, I witnessed what appeared to be aggressive commercial hedger short-selling at key times this morning in the April contract after hitting a multiweek high.  In the context of the coldest temperatures in Raleigh for many weeks today and a projection for much warmer weather ahead, this activity is contrarian and bearish in the short term.  NG had tested the upper Bollinger band a few days ago.  Regardless of the EIA inventory data release tomorrow, I am inclined to short-sell NG for day trades if the opportunity arises knowing there is a good chance we will test 2.80 over the next couple of days.  The RSI(7) is coming off extremely overbought territory and registered about -15 day-over-day, and going back to December when the day-over-day spread was -10 or less and as long as the RSI wasn't oversold, the following trading day has always tested lows by 1 tick or broken through it - every time.

I would expect April NG to test 2.822 tomorrow and 2.80 within a couple days max.  Next support after that is 2.787 and 2.760 near the 50-SMA