CL retreats

May crude oil made a sizeable move down today toward my short-term $63.25 and $62.85 targets.  I noticed hedgers entering the market with shorts yesterday morning though the book was unusually thick, resilient, and resistant to intraday trends even on the EIA inventory release which came in at a signficant inventory build, but less than last week's number as I expected in my previous post.

Today's trading saw the order book become considerably thinner between 10:15 and 10:30am, which was an outlier compared to yesterday's thick trading.  Also, the OVX index (VIX for USO), not exactly a barometer of industrial user trading activity but an event stream that captures funds in the equity space attempting to gain WTI exposure, tested 1 standard deviation below the 20-day Bollinger Band a few days ago and held above this level before putting in the highest % change of the month in today's trading.

Additionally, reports came out today that Saudi Arabia/OPEC+ was considering increasing output in July, which aligns with bearish implications in my last post.

I would expect CL to easily take out those targets with further support at $62.40 and $61.85.